by Uri Elitzur

http://israelnn.com/article.php3?id=5997

Commentators spoke about the achievement of the Hamas, feature
writers described the atmosphere of democratic celebration in the
streets of Ramallah, but the most important headline was missed by
everyone: one million, three hundred thousand. That is the number of
eligible Palestinian Authority voters in Samaria, Judea, Gaza and
Jerusalem. All together, including everyone – 1.3 million.

In Israel, in contrast, the number of eligible voters is more than
five million. In short, we’ve been fooled. We were presented a
demographic demon that never existed. “Between the sea and the Jordan
River,” they menaced us, “there is already almost an equal number of
Israelis and Palestinians. Soon, they will be the majority.” The very
same week of the PA elections, several prestigious speakers even
repeated that mantra at the Herzliya Conference.

What “majority”? 5.1 million Israelis as opposed to 1.3 million
Palestinians. Those are the official numbers.

For two years, a dispute has been underway between the creators of
the demographic demon, chief among them Professor Arnon Sofer, and
between a group of Israeli and American researchers, whose chief
spokesperson is Yoram Ettinger. The former say the number of
Palestinians is close to four million, and the latter speak about 2.4
million. All of them admit that their figures are dependent on
estimates and calculations, and on Palestinian publications that are
themselves estimates – or perhaps propaganda – because since 1968, no
one has carried out a population census in Judea, Samaria and Gaza. I
am unqualified to interfere in such a professional dispute among
learned men, but here we do have an official number, one-to-one: one
million and three hundred thousand, including Gaza.

No Huge Population Growth

I have already heard one of the devotees of the demographic demon
explain the huge disparity, saying “it is well known” that there is a
giant natural population growth among the Palestinians. They have a
lot of children; and so, the number of people over the age of 18 is
only a third of the population. You have to triple the voter rolls in
order to get an accurate figure, including children.

Excuse me, but how is it “known” that there is a giant natural
population growth? First, you determined that there are nearly four
million Palestinians, when it is known that in 1967 there were 1.1
million. The conclusion from this is that there is a tremendous
natural population increase; and the conclusion from this is that
there are nearly four million Palestinians. That is circular logic.
It is equally possible to do the reverse calculation: to assume that
the total number is less than two million. The conclusion from this
is that there is a small natural increase, and the conclusion from
this is that there are less than two million.

It is possible, however, to do a calculation with no curlicues. We
don’t know how many children they have under the age of 18, but we
know for a fact that 18 years ago, those children did not exist. That
is, those 1.3 million eligible voters of today were the entire
population, including children, in 1988. We must add on another five
or six percent for people who were 65 years old or older and have
died in the interim. Let’s be generous and add on another ten
percent. The result is that in 1988, 18 years ago, there were a total
of 1.45 million Palestinians, including children.

In 1967, Israel carried out a true census in Judea, Samaria and Gaza,
from house to house, and found that there were nearly 1.1 million
people. That is, in 21 years, the Palestinian population increased by
about a third. That is not a large growth. It is similar to the
increase among the Jews. And if we consider that in the years
following the Six Day War, Israel allowed 150,000 people to return to
Judea and Samaria from Jordan and the Gulf states, then the natural
increase among Palestinians is revealed to be even smaller.

But let’s not take that into consideration; rather, let’s fully
accept a one-third population growth in 21 years. After another 21
years, there will be another one-third increase; that is, in 2009,
the Palestinian population in Judea, Samaria, Gaza and Jerusalem will
reach 1.9 million. Far less even than the minimalist school of
thought. That means that not only are we very far from parity, but
that the difference in favor of the Jews is getting larger with time.

Not More Than 10 Percent

Finally, why should we even deal with the total number? If we take
into account just Judea and Samaria, without Gaza and without
Jerusalem, the number of Palestinian voters was around 700,000.
That’s it (the exact official figure that the Palestinians publicized
was 762,040, but that includes approximately 60,000 residents of
Jerusalem according to the Israeli definition – holders of Israeli ID
cards – whom the Palestinian records define as residents of Judea and
Samaria). That is, if we believe our own statements that we have
already left Gaza and that Jerusalem is Israeli and unified, then the
balance is 700,000 adult Palestinians versus five million adult
Israelis. That’s the whole demographic demon.

And now you may ask what difference it makes; am I proposing to annex
to Israel all those 700,000 Palestinians?

The answer is that regarding a small portion of them, yes, but more
generally, no. But forgive me one last calculation, and that’s it. If
we are 5.1 million people and they are 700,000, then they are 12
percent of the overall population. They do not deserve 20 percent of
the territory. It is unjust, especially in light of the fact that in
the tiny territory that remains for us, almost 50 percent of it –
from Be’er Sheva to Eilat – is desert.

Ten percent would be a more-than-fair share.

132 thoughts on “Death of the Demographic Demon

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  24. […] First, links to conservative blog posts concerned about a possible injustice for Cory Maye: Cute Little Blog From Burke to KirkClayton CramerTiger HawkClose DangerGates of ViennaAndrew Sullivan.comThe anti-corn law leagueEd DriscollThe Metropolis timesStrange JusticeTruth Above AllYippee-Ki-YayThe owner’s manualBaylyblogBlog on the runPaul PennyfeatherBooker RisingRagged ThotsThe Other Side of KimFish or ManRantings of a Random ScrubCommonsense JunctionGeekish SanityCynical NationHugh Hewitt Cardinal MartiniBurtoniaMan in the MiddleInstapunditCitizen DainSilent RunningDADvocateJohn ColeThe Argument ClinicEntropy ManorROFAsixBird of ParadisePolyscifiInsults unpunishedHoodaThunkLife’s Better IdeasCake Eater ChroniclesChapomaticSneakeasyEuphoric RealityCustomer ServantDaily PunditFancy store-bought dirtRaje’s RantQueen of all EvilConfederate YankeeThose Bastards Surprised when I returned, after not many early comments, to find such a long thread here.  I’m glad to see the discussion. Though I admit to being liberal, I have great respect for reasoned conservatives and appreciate RedState as a site where reasoned conservatives predominate, and the dismissive attitudes of the few don’t bother me so much. After all I participate in discussions from time to time over at Kos and have to put up with dismissive attitudes in the opposite direction there, which I find just as ridiculous. Now I freely admit I can only guess at many of the particulars in this case based on what I’ve read. The claims of the defense with respect to when and how the police identified themselves differed from that of the police. But regardless the death penalty is extreme in this case. If Maye’s claims are true, I believe Maye is still guilty of bad judgment and acting too rashly, but probably not guilty of any crime. If the police claims are true, and Maye was fully aware that the officer he shot was a cop then he is certainly guilty of an imprisonable offense, but given the surprise of the raid, the lack of a previous criminal record, the absence of any legitimate reason for the raid on his side of the duplex, capital murder is not it. It seems likely to me that there was lots of bad judgment to go around that night, but many of the points than brendanm makes here certainly cast doubt on the most incriminating interpretation of Maye’s actions. Why on earth was a warrant issued for the other side of the duplex, without even a name or any suggestion of prior guilt? Somebody didn’t think that one through. Sadly the officer who was killed was probably only guilty of being imprudent. Some of the other officers may be guilty of worse after the fact. False testimony to make their role in the affair sound more justified, very likely. Sadly that’s human. Now it is true that the preponderance of facts in the blogosphere have been mined from a single libertarian source (Balko) who indeed made a few early mistakes. But the motive problem is a big one for me in believing the prosecution’s case in toto with any certainty.  True a jury bought it, but juries have certainly made mistakes before, and the transcript of the jury selection shows that the prosecution was able to scratch for reason any potential juror not comfortable with the death penalty.  That’s probably typical anywhere in a potential capital case, but even asking the question may be prejudicial, especially if the jurors knew anything of the circumstances of this case, specifically that a man fired at police who busted his house down in a no-knock raid. Someone who is ordinarily not against capital punishment might let their doubt that it was appropriate in this case impact their responses.  Hopefully the venue of the trial was far enough away from any publicity to make that not so – but these are small Mississippi towns, so I’m not so sure. At the very least Cory Maye deserves a retrial.  He’s been behind bars for four years already. Perhaps he was guilty of something deserving that, though I’m skeptical. Maybe his sentence will be reduced to manslaughter and he’ll be released for time served. If some of you want to dismiss me as just another liberal who’s soft on crime, that’s your business, but this site was set up for reasoned discussion, and though I may have presented the diary more from a liberal perspective, I feel it deserves a fair hearing.  Thanks for all the comments. For reasoned liberal opinion which recognizes the need to retain conservative voices, visit Choosing Hope […]

  25. […] Headlines for Thursday 12/15/2005 Cop Said to Taser Partner After Soda Fight Partner:”I was shocked he felt so strongly about Mr. Pibb”FDA Advisers Say Diarrhea Vaccine Safe Doctor gets news and runs with itJapanese Get Fat Penguins to ExerciseNew fitness initiative targets Catholic Sumo NunsItalian Lawmakers to Consider 20 Percent Tax on PornMeasure could face stiff oppositionDeputy Delivers Baby Outside Dairy QueenBaby born in back seat of Chevy; same place it was concievedLaw Requires Bathrooms for TransvestitesLook for bathroom doors marked Men, Women, and OtherMapplethorpe Arrives in More-Tolerant CubaArtist mysteriously disappears along with exhibit “Piss Castro”FDA to Consider Vaccine Against ShinglesRoofing Industry may not recover from this devasting blowMan acquitted of murder under ‘Make My Day’ lawdefendant refused plea bargain under lessor ‘Do You Feel Lucky Punk’ lawSpears Most-Searched for Item on the WebMany prepare for total hand gun banThat’s it for Headlines today. Remember to visit the usualsuspects for more “headliney goodness”!basil at basil’s bloglyn at bloggin’ out loudbeth at And Then I woke up (What up with all the lowercase names?)and welcoming back moehawk at oystersnoutLinky BusinessTMH’s Bacon BitsCustomerservant.comRight Wing Nation spans = document.getElementsByTagName(‘span’); number = 0; for(i=0; i < spans.length; i++){ var c = ” ” + spans[i].className + ” “; if (c.indexOf(“fullpost”) != -1) { number++; } } if(number != memory){ document.write(‘We want to read more!’); } memory = number; […]

  26. […] As stated here, the caller told me the prescription had been called in on the twenty-fifth, which would put it at a perfectly normal processing rate. When she got on the phone with my supervisor, (actually the Asc member taking supervisor calls), she said that it had been called in on the twenty-third. How about you get your story right! I’ll be the first one to admit when I’ve made a mistake, but there’s nothing I hate more than a caller who just wants to get me in trouble because they don’t like what I have to tell them. She should have given me all the information in the first place. I could have helped a little more then. Now, I told her we wouldn’t wave the expedition fee, and then she gets to a supervisor, provides the rest of the details, and gets the fee waved, making me look like a total ass. […]

  27. […] Sleepy Sunday Open Trackback Mentre noi dormiamo per tutto il giorno, voi fate un link a questo post, poi un trackback a questa URL e (prima o poi) il link al vostro post verrà aggiunto qui sotto. Se non potete fare un trackback, provate Simpletrack di Adam Kalsey o Wizbang Standalone Trackback Pinger. Se non avete idea di che cosa sia un trackback, segnalate il vostro post a questo indirizzo e-mail (con url, titolo del post, nome del blog e nell’object: “Sleepy Sunday Open Trackback”). Altre informazioni qui e qui. Già che ci siete, perdete dieci secondi per votare The Right Nation alla finale dei Weblog Awards 2005. Buona domenica a tutti :)While we’re sleeping all day long, make a link to this post, then trackback this URL and – sooner or later – a link to your post will be added at the end of this one. If you can’t make a trackback, use Simpletrack di Adam Kalsey or Wizbang Standalone Trackback Pinger. If you have no idea of what a trackback is, mail url, title and name of blog to this address, writing in the subject: “Sleepy Sunday Open Trackback”. While you’re at it, waste ten seconds to vote The Right Nation at the Weblog Awards 2005 (Best European Blog). Have a nice Sunday, everyone :)Trackbacks:All Things Beautiful – The D Stands For DefeatConservative Musings – Weblog Awards ContinuesHyscience – Retreat And Defeat – Dem’s Latest Iraq StrategyCommittees of Correspondence – Arbeit Macht FreiCamelot Destra Ideale – Saddam Hussein si definisce…Phastidio.net – Tassati a morteRobinik.net – Week-end Easy Open TrackbackDon Surber – Next: The ACLU War On FunyunsOtimaster – The battle of the bridges Open Trackback PostDon Surber – Bush: Democracy’s ChampionCrazy Politicos Rantings – Senator, Do Your Ears Work?Don Surber – Blog CastFreedom Folks – Still FlailingNequidnimis (The Abr’s Neo-blog) – American ChopperLa pulce di Voltaire – Nuovo sito per il Dalai LamaNeocon Italiani – Primarie romaneDon Surber – 71% of Iraqis Say Their Lives Are Going WellThe Business of America is Business – Where Would Jesus Shop?All Things Beautiful – If Israel Is The Tumor Then Iran…Other Open Trackbacks: 10ft2ft.com, Adam’s Blog, , Basil’s Blog, Bloggin’ Outloud, bRight & Early (2), Cao’s Blog, Customerservant, Is It Just Me? (2), Jo’s Cafe, MacStansbury, Mudville Gazette, NIF, Oblogatory Anecdotes, Otimaster, Outside The Beltway, Point Five, Right Wing Nation, Robinik, Stop The ACLU, Stuck On Stupid, The Crazy Rants of Samantha Burns, The Uncooperative Blogger, TMH’s Bacon Bits, Wizbang. (More at the Open Trackback Alliance and the Open Trackback Provider Blogroll).Trackback URL for this entry:http://haloscan.com/tb/andragorn/113430087011467696 […]

  28. […] Advertisement Customize | Feedback Gleanings From The Graywear – Post a comment(Recent Entries) (Archive) (Friends) (User Info) (customerservant.com)Dec. 5th, 2005extreme_jew09:55 pm – Jerry Springer with a Mid-East FlavorIf only we could have seen it on TV! According to the AP via Yahoo!, things got pretty rowdy during the latest phase of Saddam Hosein’s trial. Hosein’s defense team staged a walk-out, Saddam yelled at the judge, and the first witness testified concerning the random arrests and torturing that went on during Saddam’s regime. Former U.S. Attorney General turned part of Saddam’s dream team threatened to take his toys and go home, but Judge Rizgar Mohammed Amin informed him that if he and his colleagues walked out, then new defense lawyers would be appointed. Way to go! And now, some wisdom from Saddam: “You are imposing lawyers on us. They are imposed lawyers. The court is imposed by itself. We reject that.” Something worth pondering, about as much as pondering whether or not chalk has a soul. Taken from customerservant.comRead CommentsReply: From:Anonymous OpenID Identity URL:  Log in?  LiveJournal user Username:Password:Log in?  Don’t have an account? Create one now. Subject: […]

  29. […] Dec. 8th, 200510:03 am – They Killed The Link I got in this morning to find that the link I use to access the database interface has been killed, and to top it off, the new interface doesn’t work with Jaws. This is exactly what I thought was going to happen. And as if things need to be any worse, the person who has all the information about who to contact in order to get the link operative again has been fired. She wasn’t forward-thinking enough to pass on the information. Probably wanted to keep it to herself so she could feel important. There’s the client’s man, who’s perfectly happy to accept the declaration of accessibility handed down from the developers, and then there’s the HTML Specialist, (yes, that’s her actual title), who’s in his pocket, so the results will be pretty much the same from that end. This is what happens when idiots get put in to positions of power. We’ve gone through this before, I’ve made it a point to make suggestions and recommendations to the developers to make the damn thing accessible, and no one seems to listen. Now we get to spend however long arguing this point all over again. Well, at least this time, I have ‘net access. I’m not too thrilled about sitting around here serfing the ‘net though. That’s not why I’m supposed to be here. I didn’t get up, find out that the conditioner I bought isn’t really conditioner, (not Andrew’s fault, probably some idiot put shampoo in the same place as the conditioner, and he just grabbed because he knows where the conditioner is supposed to be, and assumed that it would be there), then to spend most of the remaining time trying to get a comb and brush through my hair without doing any damage, just to come to work and find out that everything’s been totally screwed up because of someone else’s stupidity. Why does stupidity have to ruin everything? I’d love to find a way to make stupidity illegal. To be fair, I realize that making changes to tons of code is very expensive, and that there are only two employees who require the changes. But I don’t think it would require a complete overhaul of the system to make it accessible. Java can be made accessible, it just takes a little consideration to do it. Given my past dealings, the impression I get is that accessibility really isn’t a concern for more than financial reasons, and they’ll just continue to feed me lines because they think I’ll believe them, and because I really have no choice but to at least act like I do. What else am I supposed to do? It’s not like I can just expose some major scam and get the changes made. If I go making too many waves, it could cost me my job, and I’m sure there’s something they could hide behind to make sure it doesn’t look like a discrimination case. I’m definitely a proponent of capitalism, but there’s making a profit, and then there’s greed. Based on what I’ve seen, I firmly believe that both the client and the company I work for are acting as a result of the latter, and not the former. I wish I was wrong on this one. The Business Of America Is Business,TMH’s Bacon Bits, Liberal Common Sense, the Conservative Cat, and MacStansbury.org link to this. Convergys, accessibility, Express Scripts, computer, MYSQL, databaseTaken from customerservant.comTags: productive members of society(Leave a comment) […]

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